Silfio quantifies geopolitical risk using statistical models with real-time AI-driven sentiment analysis, giving key business decision-makers the insight they need to act with confidence. Its lightning-fast model turns portfolio inputs into actionable results in moments. Explore our solutions or contact us for more information.
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UK actuary takes probabilistic approach to modelling geopolitical risk (opens in a new tab)Stay up-to-date with the current geopolitical climate.
Learn what signals drive our model estimates of conflict.
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Which country currently has the highest probability of a new armed conflict onset?
A clear methodology for translating conflict risk into financial loss.
Silfio breaks geopolitical risk into a traceable chain: events, severities, inventory, vulnerability, investment shocks, then financial loss.
Practical Applications
Apply conflict risk intelligence to core business decisions.
Capital and Regulatory Models
Incorporate stochastic outputs into solvency, stress testing, and capital adequacy assessments.
Insurance Pricing
Price policies with a clearer view of conflict-driven exposure.
Investment & Trading Decisions
Assess conflict risk premium in the current geopolitical climate.
Enterprise Risk Management
Enhance risk monitoring processes and board reporting.
Downstream Models
Feed supply chain, commodities, and operational risk models.