Original, practical guides to interpreting conflict forecasts, evaluating geopolitical signals and translating country risk into portfolio decisions.
A practical guide to interpreting country-level conflict probabilities: what the number measures, how to read level versus change, and why a forecast is a distribution rather than a verdict.
Read the guideWhy a country score cannot describe financial exposure, and how separating how-often from how-bad — then running it through your actual assets and contracts — produces expected loss, VaR and TVaR for a specific book.
Read the guideHow to turn fast-moving reporting into a disciplined, traceable adjustment on top of a stable model — controlling noise, duplication and narrative bias without inventing false precision.
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