Grenada

Grenada’s 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset is 0.5%, representing a minimal risk. The country’s small population, limited military capacity, and longstanding parliamentary institutions constrain the ability of domestic or foreign actors to sustain violence. Its main modern conflict, the 1983 crisis and subsequent US-led intervention, remains an exceptional episode rather than a recurring pattern.

Recent reporting reviewed contains no specific indication of armed mobilisation, insurgent activity, politically organised violence, or an external threat reaching Grenadian territory. Grenada’s principal political actors operate through established constitutional channels, while no neighbouring state or armed group is identified as preparing operations against the country. No prediction market is available for Grenada.

The main uncertainty is whether an abrupt political rupture, severe institutional crisis, or unexpected external confrontation could overcome these safeguards. Risk would rise most clearly with sustained armed clashes involving state forces or organised domestic groups, or a credible foreign threat to Grenadian territory; it would be reinforced as minimal by continued peaceful political competition and the absence of organised armed mobilisation.