Country Risk Profiles
Country facts, conflict-risk signals, and related geopolitical reporting.
Afghanistan
10.5% annual probability
Albania
1.1% annual probability
Algeria
10.3% annual probability
Andorra
0.2% annual probability
Angola
8.7% annual probability
Antigua and Barbuda
0.1% annual probability
Argentina
0.8% annual probability
Armenia
1.4% annual probability
Australia
0.2% annual probability
Austria
0.5% annual probability
Azerbaijan
19.1% annual probability
Bahamas
0.2% annual probability
Bahrain
3.3% annual probability
Bangladesh
30.4% annual probability
Barbados
0.1% annual probability
Belarus
2.1% annual probability
Belgium
0.4% annual probability
Belize
0.3% annual probability
Benin
4.2% annual probability
Bhutan
0.4% annual probability
Bolivia
1.1% annual probability
Bosnia and Herzegovina
2.6% annual probability
Botswana
0.6% annual probability
Brazil
2.9% annual probability
Brunei
0.2% annual probability
Bulgaria
1.0% annual probability
Burkina Faso
9.1% annual probability
Burundi
25.2% annual probability
Cambodia
6.6% annual probability
Cameroon
10.0% annual probability
Canada
0.2% annual probability
Cape Verde
0.3% annual probability
Central African Republic
13.9% annual probability
Chad
36.9% annual probability
Chile
0.4% annual probability
China
7.9% annual probability
Colombia
1.8% annual probability
Comoros
2.4% annual probability
Congo
6.7% annual probability
Costa Rica
0.3% annual probability
Croatia
1.0% annual probability
Cuba
0.9% annual probability
Cyprus
0.3% annual probability
Czech Republic
0.4% annual probability
Denmark
0.3% annual probability
Djibouti
3.9% annual probability
Dominica
0.1% annual probability
Dominican Republic
0.6% annual probability
DR Congo
30.1% annual probability
East Timor
1.2% annual probability
Ecuador
2.9% annual probability
Egypt
18.4% annual probability
El Salvador
1.4% annual probability
Equatorial Guinea
0.7% annual probability
Eritrea
10.4% annual probability
Estonia
0.3% annual probability
Eswatini
1.4% annual probability
Ethiopia
50.0% annual probability
Fiji
0.4% annual probability
Finland
0.3% annual probability
France
1.4% annual probability
Gabon
0.6% annual probability
Gambia
1.3% annual probability
Georgia
8.0% annual probability
Germany
0.8% annual probability
Ghana
2.9% annual probability
Greece
0.9% annual probability
Grenada
0.5% annual probability
Guatemala
2.0% annual probability
Guinea
4.3% annual probability
Guinea-Bissau
2.5% annual probability
Guyana
0.3% annual probability
Haiti
7.4% annual probability
Honduras
1.9% annual probability
Hungary
0.7% annual probability
Iceland
0.2% annual probability
India
42.6% annual probability
Indonesia
12.8% annual probability
Iran
57.6% annual probability
Iraq
21.4% annual probability
Ireland
0.2% annual probability
Israel
5.3% annual probability
Italy
0.9% annual probability
Ivory Coast
4.8% annual probability
Jamaica
0.9% annual probability
Japan
0.5% annual probability
Jordan
15.1% annual probability
Kazakhstan
1.1% annual probability
Kenya
6.3% annual probability
Kiribati
0.2% annual probability
Kosovo
1.2% annual probability
Kuwait
8.3% annual probability
Kyrgyzstan
3.2% annual probability
Laos
2.8% annual probability
Latvia
0.3% annual probability
Lebanon
10.4% annual probability
Lesotho
2.5% annual probability
Liberia
6.7% annual probability
Libya
16.6% annual probability
Liechtenstein
0.1% annual probability
Lithuania
0.3% annual probability
Luxembourg
0.2% annual probability
Madagascar
6.1% annual probability
Malawi
3.4% annual probability
Malaysia
2.2% annual probability
Maldives
0.4% annual probability
Mali
21.0% annual probability
Malta
0.3% annual probability
Marshall Islands
0.1% annual probability
Mauritania
3.7% annual probability
Mauritius
0.5% annual probability
Mexico
8.0% annual probability
Micronesia
0.2% annual probability
Moldova
2.3% annual probability
Monaco
0.1% annual probability
Mongolia
0.8% annual probability
Montenegro
0.5% annual probability
Morocco
4.9% annual probability
Mozambique
18.7% annual probability
Myanmar
45.1% annual probability
Namibia
0.5% annual probability
Nauru
0.1% annual probability
Nepal
5.9% annual probability
Netherlands
0.4% annual probability
New Zealand
0.1% annual probability
Nicaragua
1.8% annual probability
Niger
20.2% annual probability
Nigeria
23.1% annual probability
North Korea
2.9% annual probability
North Macedonia
1.4% annual probability
Norway
0.3% annual probability
Oman
0.9% annual probability
Pakistan
25.4% annual probability
Palau
0.1% annual probability
Panama
0.4% annual probability
Papua New Guinea
4.4% annual probability
Paraguay
0.6% annual probability
Peru
2.2% annual probability
Philippines
22.4% annual probability
Poland
0.9% annual probability
Portugal
0.8% annual probability
Qatar
0.5% annual probability
Romania
3.1% annual probability
Russia
31.4% annual probability
Rwanda
11.2% annual probability
Saint Kitts and Nevis
0.1% annual probability
Saint Lucia
0.1% annual probability
Saint Vincent
0.1% annual probability
Samoa
0.2% annual probability
San Marino
0.1% annual probability
Sao Tome and Principe
0.7% annual probability
Saudi Arabia
2.5% annual probability
Senegal
11.1% annual probability
Serbia
1.1% annual probability
Seychelles
0.1% annual probability
Sierra Leone
3.0% annual probability
Singapore
0.3% annual probability
Slovakia
0.5% annual probability
Slovenia
0.3% annual probability
Solomon Islands
0.3% annual probability
Somalia
23.8% annual probability
South Africa
5.1% annual probability
South Korea
0.6% annual probability
South Sudan
12.4% annual probability
Spain
1.2% annual probability
Sri Lanka
9.7% annual probability
Sudan
25.1% annual probability
Suriname
0.1% annual probability
Sweden
0.3% annual probability
Switzerland
0.3% annual probability
Syria
25.6% annual probability
Taiwan
0.7% annual probability
Tajikistan
8.6% annual probability
Tanzania
11.2% annual probability
Thailand
4.3% annual probability
Togo
3.6% annual probability
Tonga
0.1% annual probability
Trinidad and Tobago
0.5% annual probability
Tunisia
7.5% annual probability
Turkey
10.1% annual probability
Turkmenistan
1.1% annual probability
Tuvalu
0.1% annual probability
Uganda
14.1% annual probability
Ukraine
10.8% annual probability
United Arab Emirates
1.6% annual probability
United Kingdom
1.2% annual probability
United States
1.4% annual probability
Uruguay
0.2% annual probability
Uzbekistan
4.0% annual probability
Vanuatu
0.2% annual probability
Venezuela
9.5% annual probability
Vietnam
3.0% annual probability
Yemen
11.3% annual probability
Zambia
3.0% annual probability
Zimbabwe
2.5% annual probability