Iraq

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Iraq is 21.4%, a critical risk. Iraq’s recent history includes the 2003 invasion, sectarian civil war, insurgency, ISIS’s territorial war, and recurring militia violence. Persistent institutional fragmentation, competing armed actors, and exposure to regional rivalries leave the country vulnerable to a new escalation on its territory.

Recent reporting highlights Iraq’s reaffirmed September 30 deadline for the withdrawal of US-led forces, alongside indications that Washington may retain a bilateral security role. This creates a sensitive transition involving the Iraqi government, the United States, Iran-aligned militias, and Kurdish authorities. A US-approved $800 million helicopter sale also indicates continuing security cooperation, while markets give partial probabilities of 24.0% for Iran targeting Iraq by September 15 and 29.5% by September 30.

The largest uncertainty is whether regional confrontation is channelled through Iraqi territory or contained by Baghdad and external actors. Risk would rise through an Iranian, US, or militia strike in Iraq, sustained attacks on foreign forces, or renewed sectarian mobilisation; it would fall through an orderly security transition and effective Iraqi restraint of armed groups.