Israel

The live 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on Israel’s territory is 5.3%, classified as a high risk. Israel’s history of interstate wars, insurgency, terrorism, and the Hamas attack of 7 October 2023 leaves it exposed to sudden escalation. Regional disputes, contested borders, and sustained mobilisation also create multiple pathways to renewed violence, although strong institutions, substantial military capacity, and advanced defensive systems provide important resilience.

Recent reporting describes the continuing US-Israel war with Iran, political pressure on leaders at home, worsening settler confrontations in the West Bank, and a provocative visit by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir to Al-Aqsa Mosque on 31 August. These developments involve Iran, Palestinian armed groups, Israeli security forces, settlers, and political factions; they are principally context for the risk of a distinct new onset on Israel’s territory rather than themselves constituting that event.

The main uncertainty is whether existing regional confrontations remain geographically contained or generate a fresh cross-border attack or sustained internal violence inside Israel. The clearest upward trigger would be renewed Iranian or proxy strikes reaching Israeli population centres, or organised domestic armed clashes; continued ceasefire arrangements, effective air defence, and restraint around Jerusalem would lower the likelihood of such a new onset.