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Silfio country intelligence · LBN
Lebanon
10.4% annual probability
Population
5.85M
GDP
$25.97B
Currency
LBP
Capital
Beirut
Land area
10.45K km²
Official languages
Arabic, French
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Lebanon is 10.4%, a high risk. Lebanon’s history of civil war, repeated Israeli-Hezbollah confrontations, weak state authority, economic collapse, and the presence of a heavily armed non-state actor leave it vulnerable to renewed domestic or interstate violence. The Lebanese Armed Forces have also struggled to establish an uncontested national monopoly on force.
Recent reporting shows that the current Israel-Hezbollah war continues to shape conditions inside Lebanon, including major explosions in Nabatieh and mass displacement around Tyre. President Joseph Aoun is supporting a US-brokered framework to end hostilities, while Israel and Lebanon have opened direct talks. Hezbollah, Israel, the Lebanese government, the Lebanese Armed Forces, Iran, and international peacekeeping actors remain central to the security outlook.
The largest uncertainty is whether the ceasefire framework produces a durable settlement or leaves contested territory, weapons, and security arrangements unresolved. Risk would rise through renewed Israeli-Hezbollah exchanges, a breakdown in talks, or a vacuum as the UN peacekeeping mandate ends in late 2026; it would fall if the Lebanese state and a replacement international mission successfully consolidate control in the south.
Strategic reasoning
- Lebanon’s conflict history and divided sovereignty make escalation readily transferable from political crisis into armed violence. The central distinction is that fighting already underway is not itself a new-onset event, but its settlement could fail and generate a separate renewed conflict.
- Israeli strikes and explosions reported in Nabatieh are the strongest current escalatory signal. Direct talks, the proposed framework, and efforts to strengthen the Lebanese Armed Forces are important stabilising mechanisms but remain untested.
- The approaching end of the UN peacekeeping mandate creates uncertainty over deterrence and monitoring in southern Lebanon. A credible successor mission could help contain confrontation, while an unmanaged vacuum could increase miscalculation.
Critical indicators
- On August 31, 2026, President Joseph Aoun said Lebanon’s stability was essential to Europe and backed a US-brokered framework to end the Israel-Hezbollah war. This indicates active diplomatic efforts while highlighting that Lebanon’s stability remains tied to an unresolved external conflict.
- On September 1, reporting described EU consideration of a mission to replace UN peacekeepers when the nearly 50-year mandate expires at the end of 2026. The transition could preserve security monitoring or create a dangerous gap in southern Lebanon.
- On August 31, Greece pledged increased military assistance to Lebanon to help the Lebanese Armed Forces assume control of national territory, while markets assigned 7.0% to Israel withdrawing from Lebanon by December 31, 2026. These developments underscore both international support for state authority and continued uncertainty over Israel’s military presence.
Probability trend
How the Lebanon estimate has moved
Probability10.4%9.8%9.1%
Aug 26
Aug 31
Sep 1
Date
Regional context
Lebanon compared with its neighbours and region
Lebanon ranks number 34 of 195 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
Related coverage
www.hindustantimes.com
Lebanon Rocked Again: Huge Blasts Erupt Across Nabatieh As Explosions Shake The Region | Videos
Read source
www.aljazeera.com