Syria

The live 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Syria is 25.6%, representing a critical risk. Syria’s recent history of civil war, fragmented sovereignty, armed local communities, weak institutions, and limited economic capacity leave the country vulnerable to renewed internal fighting or escalation involving external forces.

Recent reporting points to several active pressure points. Clashes in Sweida wounded 10 government security personnel after two civilians were killed, while Israel has intensified incursions, raids, and artillery fire in Quneitra despite security talks with Damascus. The announced dissolution of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces alliance also creates uncertainty around authority and armed-group integration.

The largest uncertainty is whether Damascus can integrate former opposition, Kurdish, Druze, and other local forces without coercive confrontation, while containing Israeli and other foreign military activity. Further Israeli strikes or incursions, renewed large-scale clashes in Sweida, or a breakdown in SDF integration would raise risk; durable security arrangements and successful political integration would lower it. Partial-scope prediction markets put Israeli action against Syria by September 30 at 19.5% and Iranian targeting at 9.0%, providing separate indications of external-pressure concerns.