Türkiye

The live 12-month probability is 10.1%, a high risk. Turkey’s history of insurgency involving the PKK, political violence, military intervention, and repeated conflict along its borders supports meaningful exposure to a new domestic or interstate onset. Its large armed forces and state capacity are important safeguards, but persistent internal polarisation and unresolved Kurdish issues remain relevant vulnerabilities.

Recent reporting shows sharper regional friction involving Turkey. Israel’s 29 August strike on a Syrian base reportedly sought to prevent a feared Turkish deployment, while President Erdoğan’s 1 September rhetoric presented Turkey as more militarily capable and sharply condemned Israel. Turkey and Greece also clashed over protected marine areas in a disputed Aegean zone. These developments involve Israel, Syria, Greece, and Turkey, but do not themselves establish fighting on Turkish territory.

The largest uncertainty is whether regional competition or a renewed Kurdish confrontation crosses into sustained violence inside Turkey. The Polymarket indicators provide separate context: markets implied 13.5% for an Israel–Turkey clash and 5.2% for Greece–Turkey engagement by year-end, both partial-scope measures. Risk would rise most clearly after a cross-border attack reaching Turkey or sustained armed attacks by domestic actors; restraint in the Aegean and regional channels would lower immediate pressure.