Georgia

Georgia has a 8.0% 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset, a high risk. The main long-run drivers are its history of conflict with Russia, the unresolved status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and the presence of Russian forces in those territories. The 2008 Russia–Georgia war shows that political and security crises can escalate rapidly on Georgian territory.

Recent reporting reviewed is routine: Georgia’s public broadcaster is preparing to air the national basketball team’s World Cup qualifier against Portugal in Matosinhos. The report identifies no new military incident, while Russia, Georgia, and the authorities in Abkhazia and South Ossetia remain the principal actors relevant to escalation. No prediction market was available.

The largest uncertainty is whether renewed pressure around the occupied territories or a wider Russia–Georgia confrontation would cross into open fighting. Risk would rise with troop movements, attacks, mobilisation, or failed security talks; sustained monitoring mechanisms, restraint by Russia and Georgia, and continued absence of violence around the territories would lower immediate escalation pressure.