Armenia

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Armenia is 1.4%, a low risk. The country’s main exposure comes from its history of war with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, unresolved border and territorial disputes, and limited economic and military capacity relative to its larger neighbour. Armenia’s difficult security environment and dependence on external partners also leave it sensitive to shifts in regional alignments.

Recent reporting provides limited direct evidence of an imminent outbreak on Armenian territory. A September 1 statement by Russian senator Vladimir Dzhabarov criticised Armenia’s position on Russia and its interpretation of the 2020 war, highlighting continuing friction with Moscow. Reporting on Russian drone attacks in Ukraine concerns a separate conflict and does not itself indicate fighting in Armenia.

The largest uncertainty is whether strained Armenia–Azerbaijan relations or deteriorating ties with Russia translate into coercion or armed action rather than diplomacy and deterrence. Risk would rise most clearly following a confirmed Azerbaijani cross-border attack, sustained military mobilisation, or a collapse of border negotiations; it would fall with durable agreements, effective border monitoring, and continued restraint by regional powers.