Jordan

The live 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Jordan is 15.1%, a high risk. Jordan’s exposure reflects its location between Israel, Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, its hosting of foreign forces, and its repeated vulnerability to regional wars and militant spillover. Strong state institutions, capable security services, and the absence of a recent sustained domestic insurgency remain important restraints, but they do not remove the danger of escalation onto Jordanian territory.

The strongest current evidence is Iran’s late-August missile campaign against US positions in Jordan and the Jordanian Armed Forces’ interception of eight missiles over the kingdom on August 31. Iran, the United States, and Jordan are the principal actors; the attacks currently centre on US facilities and retaliation for US strikes on Larak Island, but repeated incursions into Jordanian airspace create a direct interstate escalation risk.

The largest uncertainty is whether Iran continues treating Jordan as a low-cost retaliation route or limits attacks to specific US military targets. Further missile or drone strikes causing casualties or damage, Jordanian retaliation, or sustained armed mobilisation would raise risk; a verified halt in Iranian attacks and continued successful interception would lower it.