Kuwait

The live 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Kuwait is 8.3%, making this a high risk. Kuwait’s small territory, exposed position between Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, and concentration of critical energy and transport infrastructure create persistent vulnerability. Iraq’s 1990 invasion also demonstrates that interstate conflict has previously reached Kuwaiti territory, although strong state capacity, external partnerships, and diplomatic resources provide important protection.

Recent reporting indicates that Iranian attacks have disrupted Kuwait International Airport, with Terminal 1 still closed for repairs while operations continue. This places regional interstate escalation and Iran among the principal immediate concerns, while Kuwait’s government and external partners remain central to deterrence and crisis management. A new attack reaching Kuwaiti territory would meet the event definition; fighting elsewhere or continuation of an existing regional conflict would not by itself constitute a new onset.

The largest uncertainty is whether regional hostilities remain contained or generate deliberate strikes against Kuwaiti territory and critical infrastructure. Further Iranian attacks, damage to energy or transport facilities, or mobilisation by neighbouring states would raise risk. Expanded defence coordination, including Kuwait’s new committee with India on training, exercises, and research, would strengthen the clearest stabilising trend. Prediction markets separately showed 4.5% for an Iranian targeting event by August 31, 50.0% by September 15, and 74.5% by September 30, though these contracts have partial scopes.