Egypt

The live 12-month probability is 18.4%, representing a high risk. Egypt’s history of internal upheaval, including the 2011 revolution, the 2013 military takeover, and the prolonged Sinai insurgency, reflects recurring political and security stress. Economic pressure, institutional concentration of power, and exposure to regional wars also create conditions in which domestic unrest or external escalation could become armed conflict on Egyptian territory.

The strongest recent signal is the August 29 report that Banque Misr was reviewing a US Treasury notice concerning dollar restrictions on its UAE branches over dealings with Iran. The development places Egyptian financial institutions within a widening Iran-related sanctions dispute and raises tensions involving Egypt, Iran, the United States, and the UAE, although it is not itself an armed attack on Egypt. Prediction markets separately imply 4.0% for Iran targeting Egypt by September 30 and 2.5% by September 15, with partial scope.

The largest uncertainty is whether regional confrontation or domestic political and economic pressure crosses into sustained violence inside Egypt. A direct strike, cross-border attack, renewed organised insurgency, or major armed unrest would raise risk; continued containment by Egypt’s security institutions and avoidance of direct military confrontation would lower the likelihood of a new onset.