Morocco

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Morocco is 4.9%, representing a moderate risk. Morocco has generally capable state institutions and security forces, but its history includes the Western Sahara conflict, periodic unrest, and tensions over contested territory. These factors leave some exposure to escalation even though sustained nationwide armed violence has not been typical in recent decades.

Recent reporting highlights renewed concern over tensions involving Spain, particularly around Ceuta and Melilla. One account describes a recent crisis and hostile political and media reactions, while another warns that radical factions could push Morocco and Spain “too close to clash.” The principal actors are the Moroccan and Spanish states, with nationalist and radical political forces potentially increasing pressure.

The largest uncertainty is whether political confrontation over the enclaves or wider territorial disputes produces an actual armed incident rather than remaining diplomatic and rhetorical. Risk would rise most clearly from a cross-border clash, military confrontation around Ceuta or Melilla, or mobilisation linked to Western Sahara. Sustained diplomatic engagement and restraint by both governments would lower the likelihood of onset.