Libya

Libya has a 16.6% probability of a new armed-conflict onset within the next 12 months, placing it in the high risk category. The main supporting factors are the country’s history of civil war since 2011, divided political institutions, competing authorities, and the continued ability of rival armed groups to mobilise. Weak state control and external involvement have repeatedly allowed political disputes to become violent.

Recent reporting provides a limited but relevant signal: on 30 August, Syria’s foreign minister discussed cooperation with Libya as Syria’s embassy in Tripoli reopened. The report recalled how the two countries’ civil wars had been interlinked and noted Turkey’s support for both, highlighting the continuing regional and external dimensions of Libya’s security environment. No prediction market was found for Libya.

The largest uncertainty is whether political competition remains contained through bargaining among Libya’s principal authorities and armed networks, or again produces sustained clashes. Renewed fighting between rival forces in or around Tripoli, Benghazi, or major oil-producing areas would raise risk; a durable security agreement that restrains mobilisation and reduces incentives for external escalation would lower it.