Niger

Niger has a 20.2% probability of a new armed-conflict onset within 12 months, making it a critical risk. The country has a recent history of coups and military rule, weak institutions, limited economic capacity, and persistent jihadist violence in its border regions. These conditions increase the possibility that elite or communal tensions could develop into sustained fighting inside Niger.

The strongest current evidence is the attempted military mutiny in Niamey on 29–30 August 2026. Soldiers attacked or approached the presidential palace, airport, state broadcaster, and a key military base, with gunfire and explosions reported before government forces restored control. The junta of General Abdourahamane Tiani relied on Russia’s Africa Corps, which has become an important security actor, while jihadist groups continue to pressure the state elsewhere.

The largest uncertainty is whether the mutiny reflected an isolated grievance or deeper fractures within the armed forces. Renewed clashes among military factions, further attacks on state institutions, or defections would raise risk; a durable purge-and-reconciliation process that preserves command cohesion would lower it.