Guinea

Guinea’s live 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset is 4.3%, a moderate risk. The level reflects a history of military intervention, contested political transitions, violent protest, and weak civilian institutions, including the 2021 coup and deadly repression during earlier periods of political crisis. Economic pressures and limited institutional trust can make disputes more difficult to contain.

The recent reporting concerns neighbouring Guinea-Bissau, where military authorities are holding a referendum on expanding presidential powers after a coup ten months ago. Its vote count and planned return to civilian government highlight persistent coup-related instability in the wider region, but the reported events are not an armed conflict on Guinea’s territory and do not directly involve Guinean state or armed actors.

The largest uncertainty is whether Guinea’s political transition and security-sector tensions remain manageable or generate a domestic confrontation. Risk would rise with a coup attempt, sustained mass protests met by lethal force, or organised armed mobilisation inside Guinea; credible civilian-military bargaining, orderly elections, and restraint by security forces would lower the likelihood of a new onset.