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Silfio country intelligence · SLE
Sierra Leone
3.0% annual probability
Population
8.82M
GDP
$7.46B
Currency
SLL
Capital
Freetown
Land area
71.74K km²
Official languages
English
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The live 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Sierra Leone is 3.0%, representing a low risk. The main long-run factors supporting this level are the country’s history of civil war, persistent institutional and economic pressures, and the continued importance of political competition and social cohesion.
Recent reporting supplied for review contains no specific armed escalation involving Sierra Leone or its territory. The principal relevant actors remain the national government, security forces, opposition movements, and community-based political networks; there is no identified neighbouring-state or armed-group mobilisation pointing to an imminent cross-border onset.
The largest uncertainty is whether political disputes or economic grievances could again become organised violence despite the post-war peace settlement. Risk would rise most clearly through sustained clashes between domestic political groups, a security-force rupture, or armed activity crossing into Sierra Leone; it would be lower with continued peaceful political contestation and effective security-sector restraint.
Strategic reasoning
- Sierra Leone’s 1991–2002 civil war demonstrates that political exclusion, weak state capacity, and economic grievances can combine into sustained internal conflict, although the long post-war settlement supports the low classification.
- No current escalation signal is identified in the supplied reporting. Any conflict involving Sierra Leonean personnel abroad would not constitute a new onset on Sierra Leonean territory unless it generated violence inside the country.
Critical indicators
- 1991–2002: The Revolutionary United Front war caused prolonged nationwide armed conflict, establishing a historically important source of residual onset risk.
- 2002: The civil war formally ended after disarmament and the deployment of international peacekeeping support; the subsequent period of domestic peace remains a key stabilising factor.
Probability trend
How the Sierra Leone estimate has moved
Probability3.1%3.0%3.0%
Aug 26
Aug 31
Sep 1
Date
Regional context
Sierra Leone compared with its neighbours and region
Sierra Leone ranks number 74 of 195 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
Related coverage
metro.co.uk