Mali

Mali has a 21.0% probability of a new armed-conflict onset within the next 12 months, representing a critical risk. The country has experienced repeated coups, prolonged jihadist violence since 2012, weak state reach outside major urban centres, and persistent tensions between central authorities, northern communities, and armed movements. These conditions increase the possibility that a new conflict actor, front, or domestic confrontation could emerge beyond fighting already underway.

The recent reporting reviewed contains no new security development: it reports Senegal’s 97–71 basketball victory over Mali in Dakar on 30 August 2026. The principal relevant actors remain Mali’s transitional authorities and security forces, JNIM, Islamic State Sahel elements, northern armed groups, and communities affected by intercommunal violence. No prediction market is available for Mali.

The largest uncertainty is whether existing insurgencies and political tensions remain contained within current conflict patterns or produce a distinct new armed confrontation on Malian territory. Risk would rise through a new coup attempt, major fighting between state forces and a previously uninvolved domestic faction, or a breakdown in relations with northern armed groups; sustained political accommodation and containment of armed mobilisation would lower it.