Nigeria

Nigeria faces a 23.1% 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on its territory, making this a critical risk. The principal long-run supports are Nigeria’s history of insurgency, communal and political violence, criminal armed groups, and militant activity, alongside institutional pressures and uneven state control across parts of the country. These conditions create several pathways for existing insecurity to broaden into a new conflict.

Recent reporting highlights worsening regional pressure. On 30 August, reporting on Niger’s failed military mutiny noted that armed groups were expanding into areas along Niger’s borders with Benin and northeast Nigeria. Nigeria has warned against force in resolving Niger’s political disputes, while domestic opposition figure Atiku Abubakar accused President Bola Tinubu’s government of failing to address insecurity. The main relevant actors are Nigeria’s federal authorities, domestic armed groups, and armed organisations operating across the Sahel.

The largest uncertainty is whether insecurity remains fragmented or develops into sustained, organised fighting between domestic actors or a cross-border attack reaching Nigeria. Risk would rise if armed groups established durable positions or launched repeated coordinated attacks inside Nigeria, or if Niger’s instability generated cross-border intervention. Stronger Nigerian security control, effective border cooperation, and containment of regional armed groups would lower the risk.