www.outsports.com
Silfio country intelligence · SEN
Senegal
11.1% annual probability
Population
18.93M
GDP
$37.01B
Currency
XOF
Capital
Dakar
Land area
196.72K km²
Official languages
French
Risk assessment
Risk profile
Senegal has an 11.1% probability of a new armed-conflict onset within the next 12 months, representing a high risk. The principal long-run drivers are the country’s history of sustained separatist violence in Casamance, episodes of severe political unrest, and pressures associated with contested elections and uneven state reach.
Recent reporting supplied for this assessment contains no specific new armed confrontation or prediction-market signal. The main relevant actors remain Senegalese state forces, political movements, and armed separatist factions linked to Casamance; the absence of a current market does not alter the assessed level.
The largest uncertainty is whether political disputes or renewed Casamance militancy could cross from protest, criminality, or sporadic violence into sustained organised fighting on Senegalese territory. Risk would rise most clearly after an armed attack, a breakdown in political order, or renewed separatist mobilisation; it would fall with durable political accommodation and verified demobilisation in Casamance.
Strategic reasoning
- Senegal’s Casamance conflict, which began in 1982, demonstrates that organised internal armed conflict can emerge despite the country’s comparatively strong institutions and longstanding electoral politics.
- The clearest escalation pathway is a combination of polarised domestic politics and renewed armed activity in Casamance; routine political contestation remains distinct from a new conflict onset unless it produces sustained armed violence.
Critical indicators
- Since 1982, the Movement of Democratic Forces of Casamance has waged a separatist insurgency against Senegal, making Casamance the central historical precedent for renewed internal conflict.
- In March 2021, protests following the arrest of opposition politician Ousmane Sonko produced deadly unrest in several Senegalese cities, demonstrating that political crises can generate serious violence even when they do not constitute an armed conflict.
Probability trend
How the Senegal estimate has moved
Probability11.9%11.5%11.1%
Aug 26
Aug 31
Sep 1
Date
Regional context
Senegal compared with its neighbours and region
Senegal ranks number 31 of 195 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
Related coverage
www.rfi.fr