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Silfio country intelligence · GMB
Gambia
1.3% annual probability
Population
2.82M
GDP
$2.59B
Currency
GMD
Capital
Banjul
Land area
10.69K km²
Official languages
English
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The live 12-month probability of a new armed conflict in The Gambia is 1.3%, a low risk. The country has a history of military intervention, including the 1994 coup and the political-military crisis surrounding Yahya Jammeh’s departure in 2017. These episodes, together with limited institutional capacity and the continuing political importance of the armed forces, support a persistent but contained risk of renewed internal violence.
Recent reporting highlights Chief of Defence Staff Major General Ousman Gomez warning soldiers against tribalism and ethnic division, while stressing that their only tribe is the Gambia Armed Forces. The statement indicates that military cohesion and politicised identity remain important concerns, but it does not itself report fighting or an organised challenge to state authority. No prediction market is available for The Gambia.
The largest uncertainty is whether political or military tensions could convert into organised violence, particularly during a crisis involving senior security officials or contested authority. Risk would rise with a coup attempt, mutiny, armed clashes among security forces, or mobilisation along ethnic or political lines; sustained civilian-military stability and continued security-force cohesion would support the low level.
Strategic reasoning
- The Gambia’s history of coups and recent exposure to attempted military intervention show that domestic political crises can acquire an armed dimension, even though current institutions have avoided a new conflict onset.
- The strongest current signal is the defence chief’s warning against tribalism, which underscores a potential cohesion risk inside the armed forces. Its stabilising element is the explicit emphasis on a unified national military identity rather than reported factional mobilisation.
- Fighting involving Gambian personnel outside the country would not constitute onset here; the relevant threshold is sustained armed violence or a coup-related confrontation on Gambian territory.
Critical indicators
- In a recent report, Chief of Defence Staff Major General Ousman Gomez warned Gambian soldiers against tribalism and ethnic divisions, saying their “only tribe” is the Gambia Armed Forces. The message focuses on preventing internal fragmentation within the military.
- The country’s established record of military rule, including the 1994 coup and the 2017 confrontation over Yahya Jammeh’s refusal to leave office, remains relevant to the live risk because it demonstrates how leadership disputes can generate serious security crises.
Probability trend
How the Gambia estimate has moved
Probability1.3%1.3%1.3%
Aug 26
Aug 31
Sep 1
Date
Regional context
Gambia compared with its neighbours and region
Gambia ranks number 101 of 195 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.