Liberia

Liberia faces a 6.7% 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset, a high risk. The principal long-run drivers are the country’s exceptionally severe conflict history, including fourteen years of civil war, unresolved wartime grievances, limited institutional capacity, and persistent economic and social vulnerabilities. These factors leave a meaningful possibility that political or social crises could again become violent.

Recent reporting highlights both the durability of peace and continuing pressures. FrontPageAfrica reports that Liberia marked 23 years since the end of its civil wars, while victims and peacebuilding organisations continue to seek justice. Separately, Global News Network Liberia describes drug trafficking and substance abuse as a national emergency, placing pressure on government and security institutions and raising concerns about wider social disorder.

The largest uncertainty is whether current grievances and criminal pressures remain manageable through state institutions and community mediation. Risk would rise most clearly if drug-related violence became organised and sustained, political disputes produced armed mobilisation, or former combatant networks reactivated. Effective policing, credible justice measures, and continued peaceful handling of disputes would support a lower likelihood of new conflict on Liberian territory.