Silfio country intelligence · CIV
Ivory Coast
4.8% annual probability
Population
32.71M
GDP
$99.77B
Currency
XOF
Capital
Yamoussoukro
Land area
322.46K km²
Official languages
French
Risk assessment
Risk profile
Ivory Coast faces a 4.8% 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset, a moderate risk. The main long-run drivers are its history of the 2002–07 civil war and the 2010–11 post-election conflict, alongside the persistence of political polarisation and armed mobilisation in national politics. Those episodes show that severe disputes can become violent when institutions and elite bargaining fail.
No dated current conflict development or prediction market is available in the reviewed reporting. The principal actors relevant to any renewed crisis would be the Ivorian government, political parties and their supporters, and armed networks linked to earlier conflicts; instability in neighbouring Burkina Faso and Mali is also a continuing regional security concern.
The largest uncertainty is whether political competition remains within institutional channels and whether security conditions in the north deteriorate. Renewed election-related mobilisation, elite defections, organised attacks, or cross-border militant activity reaching Ivorian territory would raise risk. Continued state control, political accommodation, and the absence of organised armed mobilisation would lower it.
Strategic reasoning
- Côte d’Ivoire’s civil war and post-election violence demonstrate that political disputes have previously produced sustained armed conflict, making institutional stress and elite competition important warning factors.
- The country’s comparatively capable state and security apparatus are stabilising forces, while regional militant activity creates a pathway for violence to reach northern Ivorian territory.
- The assessment concerns a new conflict inside Côte d’Ivoire; fighting involving Ivorian forces abroad or violence confined to neighbouring states would not itself constitute onset.
Critical indicators
- In 2002, a rebellion divided Côte d’Ivoire and began the country’s civil war, establishing a precedent for armed mobilisation by political and regional actors.
- From December 2010 to April 2011, the disputed presidential election produced a renewed armed conflict between forces supporting Alassane Ouattara and Laurent Gbagbo, underscoring the escalation risk surrounding contested political transitions.
Probability trend
How the Ivory Coast estimate has moved
Probability5.1%4.9%4.8%
Aug 26
Aug 31
Sep 1
Date
Regional context
Ivory Coast compared with its neighbours and region
Ivory Coast ranks number 59 of 195 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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