Ghana

Ghana’s live 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset is 2.9%, a low risk. The country’s competitive democratic institutions, comparatively capable state, and absence of recent civil war or sustained insurgency support a contained outlook. Historical coups, localised chieftaincy and communal disputes, and exposure to instability across the Sahel remain relevant background risks.

Recent reporting shows no clear escalation toward armed conflict on Ghanaian territory. The Ghana Armed Forces’ planned 2026 enlistment process indicates routine institutional activity, while an Immigration Service crackdown on undocumented immigrants and beggars in Accra reflects active internal enforcement. These developments involve the state and civilian administration rather than organised armed challengers.

The largest uncertainty is whether insecurity or armed-group activity from the wider West African region could generate cross-border violence, or whether domestic political, economic, or communal tensions could outpace state management. Risk would rise most clearly with sustained armed mobilisation, repeated lethal communal clashes, an attempted coup, or militant infiltration; effective border control and peaceful political dispute resolution would support lower risk.