Silfio country intelligence · TGO
Togo
3.6% annual probability
Population
8.59M
GDP
$11.89B
Currency
XOF
Capital
Lomé
Land area
56.79K km²
Official languages
French
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Togo is 3.6%, representing a moderate risk. The country has a history of political repression, disputed elections, and periodic unrest, while limited institutional capacity and poverty in the north can make security provision uneven. Togo has not experienced a sustained civil war in recent decades, which remains an important stabilising factor.
The principal current concern is militant spillover from Burkina Faso into Togo’s northern Savanes Region. Jihadist attacks there since 2022 have involved national security forces and armed groups linked to the Sahel insurgency, creating a direct security challenge even though the fighting has not developed into a nationwide conflict. No prediction market is available for Togo.
The largest uncertainty is whether militant networks can establish persistent local operations or exploit political and socioeconomic grievances beyond the northern borderlands. A sustained sequence of attacks, territorial control, or organised domestic mobilisation would raise risk; continued containment by Togolese forces, regional cooperation, and the absence of expanding armed-group recruitment would lower it.
Strategic reasoning
- Togo’s authoritarian political environment, limited state capacity, and history of political unrest provide conditions in which grievances could become violent, but the absence of a recent sustained civil war and the state’s continued control of major population centres constrain escalation.
- The strongest escalatory signal is the spread of Sahelian jihadist violence toward northern Togo. This is relevant to new-onset risk on Togolese territory, while attacks or military activity confined to neighbouring countries do not themselves constitute a new conflict in Togo.
- Government security operations and regional counter-insurgency cooperation remain the main stabilising factors, particularly by limiting armed groups’ ability to hold territory or turn sporadic attacks into sustained internal warfare.
Critical indicators
- Since the first reported jihadist attacks in northern Togo in 2022, militants have targeted security personnel and communities in the Savanes Region. The attacks demonstrate that the Sahel conflict has reached Togolese territory, although they have not produced a nationwide armed conflict.
- Togo’s repeated political crises and contested electoral periods, including the prolonged tensions surrounding the 2020 presidential election, show how domestic mobilisation could become a pathway to violence if combined with repression, economic stress, or armed-group penetration.
Probability trend
How the Togo estimate has moved
Probability3.7%3.7%3.6%
Aug 26
Aug 31
Sep 1
Date
Regional context
Togo compared with its neighbours and region
Togo ranks number 67 of 195 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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