Mauritania

Mauritania has a 3.7% probability of a new armed-conflict onset within the next 12 months, representing a moderate risk. The country has a history of military coups, including in 1978, 1984, 2005, and 2008, while its limited economic capacity, institutional weaknesses, and position beside the conflict-affected Sahel leave it exposed to political and security shocks.

Recent reporting supplied for review contains no specific new escalation inside Mauritania. The principal external concern is spillover from armed groups and instability in neighbouring Mali, while Mauritanian state forces remain the main actor capable of containing threats on national territory. Mauritania’s security posture and comparatively controlled internal environment are important counterweights.

The largest uncertainty is whether violence in the wider Sahel could cross the border or combine with domestic political tensions. Risk would rise with a confirmed militant attack or sustained armed infiltration inside Mauritania, or with a serious breakdown among political and security elites; it would fall with continued border control, stable civil-military relations, and the absence of organised armed mobilisation.