Algeria

The live 12-month probability is 10.3%, a high risk. Algeria’s history of civil war in the 1990s, persistent armed-group activity in parts of the country, and the security pressures created by its extensive borders with the Sahel and Libya support a meaningful risk of renewed internal violence. Strong state institutions, substantial security capabilities, and central control over major population centres remain important safeguards.

Recent reporting shows Algeria has become directly more engaged in the instability of neighbouring Niger. On August 30, it deployed four Su-30 fighter jets, alongside transport and aerial-refuelling aircraft, to Niamey after a failed mutiny targeting Niger’s military authorities. Russia, Algeria, and Sahel allies supported Niger’s junta, highlighting a volatile regional security environment and Algeria’s willingness to project military power nearby.

The main uncertainty is whether Algeria’s external security role remains limited to deterrence and support abroad or produces retaliation, militant infiltration, border incidents, or domestic opposition on Algerian territory. Risk would rise most clearly following an armed spillover from Niger or Libya, a serious attack inside Algeria, or renewed sustained clashes involving domestic armed groups. Continued effective border control and containment of the Niger crisis would lower the likelihood of a new onset.