Tunisia

Tunisia faces a 12-month probability of 7.5%, representing a high risk of new armed-conflict onset on its territory. The level reflects the country’s history of post-2011 political violence and jihadist insurgency, limited economic capacity, persistent regional inequality, and institutions under pressure. Tunisia’s proximity to conflict-affected Libya and Algeria also leaves it exposed to cross-border militant activity and weapons flows.

Recent reporting reviewed provides no direct evidence of an imminent domestic or interstate escalation. The August 30 FIBA qualifier in Radès was a routine sporting event, with South Sudan defeating Tunisia 79–75. The principal relevant actors remain Tunisia’s security forces, domestic political opposition and protest networks, and militant groups historically active near the western borders; no prediction market is available.

The largest uncertainty is whether political and socioeconomic grievances could combine with militant mobilisation or a serious border incident. Risk would rise following sustained lethal unrest, a major terrorist attack, armed clashes involving security forces, or spillover from Libya or Algeria. It would fall with durable political accommodation, improved economic conditions, and continued effective containment of armed networks.