Republic of the Congo

The live 12-month probability is 6.7%, representing a high risk of a new armed-conflict onset in Congo. The country’s risk is supported by a history of civil war, including the 1997–99 conflict, and renewed violence in the Pool region in 2016–17. Limited institutional capacity, economic dependence on hydrocarbons, and persistent political tensions can make disputes harder to contain.

Recent reporting supplied for 1 September 2026 identifies no specific armed escalation or principal actor indicating an imminent new conflict on Congolese territory. The relevant domestic risks remain tensions between the state and opposition-linked networks, particularly in areas affected by the earlier Pool insurgency; neighbouring conflicts are context but do not themselves constitute an onset in Congo.

The largest uncertainty is whether political competition or local grievances produce organised, sustained violence rather than remaining contained through security measures and negotiation. Risk would rise most clearly with renewed attacks by an organised armed group inside Congo, while a durable political settlement and effective containment of local unrest would lower the threat.