Gabon

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Gabon is 0.6%, representing a minimal risk. Gabon has experienced serious political violence, notably after the disputed 2016 presidential election, but it has generally avoided sustained insurgency or civil war. Its relatively cohesive state institutions, modest population, and limited history of organised armed mobilisation support the low level.

Recent reporting highlights unresolved grievances from the 2016 post-election violence and the political rupture caused by the August 2023 coup. The transitional authorities and security forces remain the principal domestic actors; no armed opposition group or neighbouring state is currently reported to be preparing attacks on Gabonese territory. Regional military takeovers provide context but are not themselves conflict in Gabon.

The largest uncertainty is whether political competition, economic frustration, or divisions within the security establishment could turn future unrest into sustained armed violence. Risk would rise most clearly with armed clashes involving rival security factions, organised opposition mobilisation, or cross-border rebel activity; a managed political transition and continued absence of organised armed challengers would support the minimal level.