Silfio country intelligence · SSD
South Sudan
12.4% annual probability
Population
12.19M
GDP
N/A
Currency
SSP
Capital
Juba
Land area
619.75K km²
Official languages
English
Risk assessment
Risk profile
South Sudan has a 12-month new-conflict probability of 12.4%, representing a high risk. The main supporting factors are its history of civil war since independence in 2011, persistent political and ethnic fragmentation, weak institutions, limited economic capacity, and the incomplete implementation of peace arrangements.
Recent reporting provides no direct account of a new armed confrontation inside South Sudan. The strongest relevant regional context is the continuing conflict environment in Sudan, while South Sudan’s principal domestic risks remain tensions among political and security actors, including forces associated with the government and opposition. No prediction market is available.
The largest uncertainty is whether elite disputes and local grievances remain contained through political bargaining or generate organised violence. Risk would rise with renewed fighting between national or opposition forces, mobilisation along ethnic lines, or spillover from Sudan; it would fall with verified implementation of security and power-sharing provisions and sustained restraint by armed factions.
Strategic reasoning
- South Sudan’s post-independence conflict history, weak state capacity, and unresolved political settlement leave limited safeguards against a return to organised internal violence.
- The regional war in Sudan is an escalatory pressure, but fighting by South Sudanese forces abroad or conflict confined to neighbouring territory does not itself constitute a new onset in South Sudan.
Critical indicators
- July 2011: South Sudan became independent after decades of conflict and inherited fragile institutions, unresolved territorial disputes, and heavily armed political networks.
- December 2013 and 2016: civil-war fighting erupted between forces aligned with President Salva Kiir and those aligned with Riek Machar, demonstrating how quickly political disputes can become nationwide armed conflict.
- September 1, 2026: reporting on Sudan’s continuing conflict highlighted the wider regional security environment; it did not report a new armed-conflict onset inside South Sudan.
Probability trend
How the South Sudan estimate has moved
Probability12.4%12.3%12.1%
Aug 26
Aug 31
Sep 1
Date
Regional context
South Sudan compared with its neighbours and region
South Sudan ranks number 27 of 195 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
Related coverage
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