Uganda

Uganda faces a 14.1% probability of a new armed-conflict onset within 12 months, a high risk. The main long-run drivers are Uganda’s history of insurgency and political violence, including the Lord’s Resistance Army rebellion and past unrest linked to contested elections, alongside institutional and economic pressures that can deepen grievances.

Recent reporting is limited but points to domestic poverty as an important governance concern rather than an immediate armed confrontation. Prime Minister Robinah Nabbanja urged World Vision to intensify efforts against household poverty as the organisation marked 40 years of work in Uganda. The government, civil-society organisations, and communities remain the principal actors in this development; no prediction markets were available.

The largest uncertainty is whether political competition, economic grievances, or insecurity involving armed groups operating in the region could generate sustained violence inside Uganda. Risk would rise with organised attacks, mobilisation around contested political events, or renewed insurgent activity on Ugandan territory; credible political accommodation, effective poverty reduction, and continued containment of armed threats would lower it.