Djibouti

The live 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Djibouti is 3.9%, a moderate risk. The country’s long-run exposure reflects its location beside Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Yemen, its dependence on regional trade and security dynamics, and a history that includes the 1991–94 civil war and the 2008 armed confrontation with Eritrea. These factors leave some scope for domestic unrest or external escalation despite strong state control.

Recent reporting concerns conflict activity around the wider Horn of Africa rather than fighting on Djiboutian territory. An EEPA situation report noted expanded Ethiopian military activity at Asosa and continuing violence in Sudan and South Sudan; the principal relevant actors are Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, Sudan, and foreign military forces operating around the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. No prediction market was available for Djibouti.

The largest uncertainty is whether regional wars or interstate tensions generate spillover, border incidents, displacement, or pressure on Djibouti’s political order. Risk would rise with an Eritrea–Djibouti confrontation, serious unrest involving domestic security forces, or armed infiltration from Somalia or Ethiopia; it would fall with sustained regional de-escalation and continued effective state control.