Burundi

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Burundi is 25.2%, representing a critical risk. The principal long-run factors are Burundi’s history of civil war and recurrent political violence, limited institutional resilience, weak economic capacity, and unresolved tensions surrounding political competition and security-force conduct.

Recent reporting supplied for this assessment contains no specific new development, and no prediction market is available. The main relevant actors remain the CNDD-FDD-led state, security forces, opposition networks, and armed groups such as RED-Tabara, whose activity from bases in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo has previously created risks of violence reaching Burundi.

The largest uncertainty is whether political or security tensions could again become organised, sustained fighting rather than isolated attacks or repression. Risk would rise most clearly after a major opposition crackdown, contested political transition, or cross-border armed-group attack inside Burundi; sustained elite accommodation, effective border security, and containment of armed networks would support lower risk.