Tanzania

Tanzania faces an 11.2% probability of a new armed-conflict onset on its territory within 12 months, constituting a high risk. The main longer-run supports are the country’s exposure to instability in the Great Lakes and northern Mozambique, limited institutional resilience in periods of political strain, and a history of politically driven violence and militant activity near its borders. Tensions surrounding mainland–Zanzibar relations also remain a relevant domestic fault line.

Recent reporting highlights China’s expanding security relationship with Tanzania, including joint military exercises, within broader US–China competition across Africa. The development does not itself indicate conflict in Tanzania, but it places the country in a more contested regional security environment. Relevant actors include the Tanzanian government and security forces, China, neighbouring Mozambique, and militant networks operating near the southern border.

The greatest uncertainty is whether regional militant activity or domestic political confrontation develops into sustained armed violence inside Tanzania rather than remaining contained abroad or at a low level. Risk would rise if attacks spread from northern Mozambique or political unrest produced organised armed mobilisation; it would fall if border security, political management, and relations between mainland Tanzania and Zanzibar remain stable.