Malawi

Malawi’s 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset is 3.4%, classified as a moderate risk. The country has avoided civil war, insurgency, and sustained armed conflict since independence, while generally maintaining peaceful political transfers. However, limited state capacity, economic pressures, institutional disputes, and a history of contentious political protests leave some exposure to destabilisation.

Recent reporting shows pressure around governance and public security rather than organised armed mobilisation. The High Court’s August 2026 refusal to let a police officer pursue judicial review over a withdrawn secondment to the SADC Secretariat reflects an institutional dispute, not violence. Separately, a widely circulated sexual-violence case has prompted renewed demands for stronger protection of women; no armed group or cross-border military actor is identified.

The main uncertainty is whether economic or political grievances could combine with a disputed election, severe protest crackdown, or breakdown in security-force discipline. Risk would rise most clearly if protests became sustained and armed, security forces split, or organised groups began holding territory. It would remain lower if disputes continue through courts, parliament, and peaceful civic action.