Ethiopia

Ethiopia faces a 50.0% 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset, placing it in the critical risk category. The risk is supported by the country’s recent history of large-scale civil war, unresolved political disputes, armed regional movements, weak state cohesion, and limited institutional capacity to manage disputes peacefully.

Recent reporting says confrontations in Tigray have intensified and that federal forces and Tigrayan forces have resumed fighting after the November 2022 peace agreement failed to produce a lasting political settlement. Violence involving religious and political actors, including attacks against the Orthodox Tewahedo Church, adds to the broader pattern of internal polarization.

The largest uncertainty is whether renewed Tigray fighting remains geographically contained and whether federal, regional, and community leaders can restore political channels. Risk would rise if clashes spread beyond Tigray, mobilization accelerates, or additional regional forces enter the confrontation; credible implementation of the peace agreement and sustained local ceasefires would lower the likelihood of a distinct new conflict onset.