Rwanda

Rwanda faces an 11.2% probability of a new armed-conflict onset on its territory within 12 months, a high risk. The country’s history of genocide, civil war, insurgency, and politically driven violence leaves serious consequences if elite or communal tensions break down. Its proximity to repeatedly unstable eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), contested regional identities, and concentrated political power also create persistent exposure to armed escalation.

Recent reporting highlights Rwanda’s rejection of remarks attributed to Uganda’s military chief, Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, which Kigali described as ethnic extremism. The dispute involving Kainerugaba and Odrek Rwabwogo has therefore acquired wider regional significance, particularly given Rwanda and Uganda’s history of mistrust and rivalry. Rwanda’s military involvement in conflicts beyond its borders is context rather than a new conflict onset on Rwandan territory, but it keeps cross-border tensions salient.

The main uncertainty is whether regional disputes remain political and diplomatic or generate mobilisation, armed incursions, or violence inside Rwanda. Risk would rise most clearly after a cross-border attack, an armed-group infiltration from the DRC, or open ethnic mobilisation by senior figures. Sustained diplomatic engagement between Kigali, Kampala, and Kinshasa, alongside effective internal security, would support containment.