Madagascar

Madagascar has a 6.1% 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset, representing a high risk. The main long-run drivers are weak state capacity, severe poverty, uneven access to services, and a history of political crises, including the 2009 coup and recurring unrest. Localised armed violence linked to cattle theft and banditry has also demonstrated persistent security weaknesses.

Recent reporting provides no clear evidence of an imminent nationwide escalation. On 1 September, the State Procurement of Madagascar bought 37 tonnes of rice from producers in Bongolava, indicating continued state engagement with rural economic pressures rather than a direct conflict signal. No prediction market is available for Madagascar. The relevant potential actors remain state security forces, political factions, and armed criminal or community groups.

The largest uncertainty is whether political or economic grievances could combine with local insecurity and overwhelm government control. Risk would rise through contested political change, sustained mass unrest, defections within the security forces, or coordinated violence spreading beyond isolated areas. Stronger security cooperation, effective rural governance, and continued delivery of food and economic support would lower the likelihood of a new onset.