Mozambique

Mozambique’s 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset is 18.7%, a high risk. The country’s history of civil war, persistent institutional and economic weaknesses, limited state reach, and recurrent political and regional grievances provide a substantial basis for renewed domestic violence.

Recent reporting reviewed is sparse on security developments. The main relevant context is the continuing insurgency in Cabo Delgado, involving Islamist armed groups and Mozambican state forces, with regional support; although this is an existing conflict and not a new onset, it demonstrates unresolved vulnerabilities that could facilitate violence elsewhere.

The largest uncertainty is whether current insecurity remains geographically contained or generates a distinct armed confrontation in another part of Mozambique. Risk would rise through militant expansion beyond Cabo Delgado, renewed clashes between state forces and opposition-linked actors, or sustained political violence; it would fall with durable containment, improved security provision, and credible mechanisms for resolving regional and political grievances.