Eswatini

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Eswatini is 1.4%, a low risk. The main supporting factors are concentrated political power around the monarchy, limited political pluralism, socioeconomic grievances, and the country’s recent history of serious unrest. These conditions can make political disputes harder to resolve peacefully, although Eswatini has not experienced a sustained civil war or insurgency.

Recent reporting is limited. A video of King Mswati III at a formal state or military ceremony prompted public concern about his health, but it does not itself indicate armed mobilisation or an imminent conflict. The monarchy, security services, political activists, and pro-democracy groups remain the principal relevant domestic actors; South Africa is the key neighbouring stakeholder. No prediction market is available for Eswatini.

The largest uncertainty is whether political or succession-related tensions could combine with economic frustration and trigger organised violence. Risk would rise most clearly with sustained mass protests, defections or splits within the security forces, armed attacks, or violent succession disputes; it would fall with credible political dialogue, restraint by security services, and an orderly transfer or continuity of authority.