Lesotho

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Lesotho is 2.5%, representing a low risk. The main long-run factors are a history of political instability, military involvement in politics, limited economic capacity, and fragile institutions. Lesotho experienced serious political and security crises after the 1998 election and again during coup-related turmoil in 2014–17, although these episodes did not develop into sustained nationwide conflict.

Recent reporting reviewed provides no specific indication of an imminent new armed confrontation on Lesotho’s territory. The principal relevant actors are the government, opposition parties, the Lesotho Defence Force, and the Lesotho Mounted Police Service; South Africa and the Southern African Development Community remain important external stabilising influences. No prediction market is available.

The largest uncertainty is whether a future political dispute could again trigger splits within the security services or mobilisation by competing domestic factions. Risk would rise with an unconstitutional transfer of power, military mutiny, assassinations, or sustained clashes in Maseru. It would fall with durable political cooperation and clear civilian control of the security forces.