South Africa

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in South Africa is 5.1%, a high risk. The level is supported by the country’s history of politically organised violence, including apartheid-era conflict and recurrent post-1994 unrest, alongside severe inequality, unemployment, organised crime, and persistent tensions around state authority and public services.

Recent reporting provides no direct indication of an imminent insurgency, rebellion, coup, or interstate attack on South African territory. The principal relevant actors would be state security institutions, political and community organisations, criminal networks, and protest movements; South Africa’s established constitutional institutions and security capacity remain important constraints on escalation.

The largest uncertainty is whether social and political grievances could combine with a triggering crisis and overwhelm local policing or political mediation. Risk would rise most clearly through sustained armed political violence, coordinated attacks on state facilities, or a breakdown in security-force cohesion; credible mediation, effective policing, and peaceful management of major protests would lower the likelihood of new onset.