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Silfio country intelligence · ZWE
Zimbabwe
2.5% annual probability
Population
16.95M
GDP
$51.22B
Currency
BWP
Capital
Harare
Land area
390.76K km²
Official languages
Chewa, Chibarwe, English, Kalanga, Khoisan, Ndau, Northern Ndebele, Shona, Sotho, Tonga, Tsonga, Tswana, Venda, Xhosa, Zimbabwean Sign Language
Risk assessment
Risk profile
Zimbabwe faces a 2.5% 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset, a low risk. The level reflects a history of politically driven violence, weak institutions, economic hardship, and contested transfers of power, although the country has not experienced sustained civil war since independence.
Recent reporting provides no specific development indicating an imminent armed conflict on Zimbabwean territory, and no prediction market is available. The principal potential actors would be state security forces, ruling-party and opposition networks, and organised civilian groups; regional actors could matter if domestic unrest widened, but there is no current evidence of an interstate confrontation reaching Zimbabwe.
The largest uncertainty is whether severe economic or political pressure would remain manageable or trigger sustained, organised violence. Risk would rise most clearly after a disputed national transition, major repression producing armed retaliation, or organised attacks on security forces; it would fall with credible political accommodation, improved economic conditions, and effective containment of localised unrest.
Strategic reasoning
- Zimbabwe’s history of election-related violence, coercive politics, and institutional weakness supports persistent conflict vulnerability, while the absence of sustained insurgency or civil war since independence supports the low classification.
- No current reporting identifies a credible armed mobilisation or cross-border threat on Zimbabwean territory. This separates the assessed new-onset risk from political tensions or Zimbabwean military activity occurring abroad.
Critical indicators
- Recent reporting reviewed through 1 September 2026 contains no specific, datable onset event involving armed conflict inside Zimbabwe; the live risk remains supported by the country’s record of politically connected violence and economic strain.
- No prediction market was available for Zimbabwe. The clearest relevant historical context is the recurrent use of security forces and organised political violence during disputed electoral periods, rather than an ongoing armed conflict.
Probability trend
How the Zimbabwe estimate has moved
Probability2.6%2.5%2.5%
Aug 26
Aug 31
Sep 1
Date
Regional context
Zimbabwe compared with its neighbours and region
Zimbabwe ranks number 83 of 195 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.