Botswana

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Botswana is 0.6%, representing a minimal risk. Botswana’s long record of domestic stability, constitutional governance, and absence of sustained insurgency or civil war strongly supports this low level. Its capable state institutions and relatively effective security services further reduce the likelihood that political or social tensions would develop into organised armed violence.

Recent reporting shows no credible armed mobilisation or interstate confrontation involving Botswana. Instead, the country is expanding telecommunications competition, while its defence forces completed Exercise Southern Accord 2026 with the United States on 15 August after six days of joint military planning. The principal relevant actors are Botswana’s government and security forces, alongside external partners rather than active domestic armed groups.

The main uncertainty is whether an unforeseen political rupture, severe unrest, or cross-border insecurity could rapidly change the security environment. Risk would rise most clearly with sustained violence involving domestic actors, a military or insurgent challenge to state authority, or an armed incursion reaching Botswana; it would remain lower if institutional continuity and cooperative security relationships persist.