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Silfio country intelligence · NAM
Namibia
0.5% annual probability
Population
3.09M
GDP
$15.08B
Currency
NAD
Capital
Windhoek
Land area
825.62K km²
Official languages
Afrikaans, English, German, Herero, Khoekhoe, Kwangali, Lozi, Ndonga, Tswana
Risk assessment
Risk profile
Namibia’s 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset is 0.5%, representing a minimal risk. The country has experienced no sustained internal armed conflict since independence in 1990, while comparatively stable institutions, civilian political control, and limited regional power competition support a low baseline.
Recent reporting provides no specific indication of an imminent insurgency, coup, communal conflict, or foreign attack on Namibian territory. The principal relevant actors are the Namibian government and security services; neighbouring states do not currently present a reported military threat to Namibia.
The largest uncertainty is whether a sudden political, economic, or security shock could generate violence despite the country’s long period of stability. Risk would rise most clearly with organized armed mobilisation, a breakdown in civilian authority, or cross-border fighting reaching Namibia; it would remain lower if political disputes continue to be managed through institutions and security conditions remain calm.
Strategic reasoning
- Namibia’s post-independence record of political stability and absence of sustained domestic warfare strongly supports minimal new-onset risk, although socioeconomic grievances could still become politically destabilising if combined with a major shock.
- No current reporting identifies an armed group, coup faction, neighbouring military, or other actor preparing violence on Namibian territory. This distinguishes the assessment from risks associated with Namibian personnel or interests operating abroad.
Critical indicators
- Since independence in 1990, Namibia has avoided a renewed civil war or sustained insurgency, an established country factor supporting the live minimal probability.
- Recent reporting reviewed for 1 September 2026 identifies no specific armed-conflict trigger inside Namibia; the key risk-relevant development is therefore the continued absence of reported mobilisation by domestic or foreign armed actors.
Probability trend
How the Namibia estimate has moved
Probability0.5%0.5%0.5%
Aug 26
Aug 31
Sep 1
Date
Regional context
Namibia compared with its neighbours and region
Namibia ranks number 132 of 195 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Southern Africa
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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