Silfio country intelligence · ZMB

Zambia

3.0% annual probability

Population

21.91M

GDP

$28.88B

Currency

ZMW

Capital

Lusaka

Land area

752.61K km²

Official languages

English

Risk assessment

Risk profile

The live 12-month probability is 3.0%, a moderate risk. Zambia’s long record of avoiding civil war and maintaining comparatively durable state institutions supports a relatively contained outlook, but disputed elections, economic pressures, and periodic political confrontations leave a credible pathway to sustained domestic violence.

Recent reporting points to heightened political sensitivity after the August 2026 elections. Opposition leader Chishala Kateka alleged state violence, vote theft, and constitutional breaches, while police spokesperson Godfrey Chilabi warned against online incitement and threats to public order. The government’s cancellation of the RightsCon event in Lusaka in April also reflects a restrictive political environment.

The main uncertainty is whether electoral grievances remain within protests, legal challenges, and political mobilisation or develop into organised armed confrontation. Risk would rise if security-force abuses, opposition mobilisation, or retaliatory violence produced sustained clashes; it would lower if authorities pursued credible investigations, protected peaceful assembly, and enabled an orderly post-election settlement.

Strategic reasoning

Zambia’s history of relative political stability and the absence of a sustained insurgency constrain the likelihood that political disputes become a new armed conflict, although contested elections and institutional distrust remain relevant vulnerabilities.
The strongest escalatory signal is the combination of allegations of election-related abuses and police concern about incitement, showing that political tensions have reached the level of public-order management.
The reported developments concern repression and possible unrest rather than fighting already underway; a new-onset assessment therefore turns on whether mobilisation becomes sustained, organised armed violence inside Zambia.

Critical indicators

In August 2026, opposition leader Chishala Kateka rejected calls for unity without investigations into alleged state violence, vote theft, and constitutional breaches, indicating unresolved post-election grievances.
In a recent warning, Zambia Police spokesperson Godfrey Chilabi cautioned against social-media content intended to incite violence or threaten public order, signalling official concern about possible escalation.
In April 2026, authorities effectively cancelled RightsCon in Lusaka days before it was due to begin, illustrating the restrictive environment surrounding civic and political activity.

Probability trend

How the Zambia estimate has moved

Probability3.2%3.1%3.0%

Aug 26

Aug 31

Sep 1

Date

Regional context

Zambia compared with its neighbours and region

Zambia ranks number 72 of 195 in new conflict outbreak risk.

Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.