Angola

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Angola is 8.7%, a high risk. The principal long-run factors are Angola’s history of prolonged civil war, which ended in 2002, unresolved political and regional grievances, and the persistence of armed separatist sentiment in Cabinda.

No specific recent armed escalation or cross-border attack on Angolan territory is identified in the reporting reviewed. The relevant potential actors are the Angolan state, Cabindan separatist networks, opposition-linked domestic groups, and neighbouring states whose instability could create spillover pressures.

The largest uncertainty is whether political, economic, or regional tensions translate into sustained organised violence inside Angola. Renewed armed activity in Cabinda, a serious nationwide political confrontation, or violence spilling across a neighbouring border would raise risk; continued state control and containment of localised unrest would lower it.